Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Biden - Warren 2016??

As the 2016 Presidential Campaign stumbles towards its ignominious conclusion, the question of Hillary Clinton's pending indictment looms ever larger.

Hillary for Prison!
The question comes down to this: will Hillary be indicted for her email crimes before the election?  There are many arguments on both sides for this, but it essentially boils down to a political question: Will Obama make the political call to torpedo her?  Or will he protect her?

There are currently two power bases in the Democrat Party.   The Clinton's hold tremendous power.  They are the de facto power brokers behind the scenes the control large parts of the party apparatus.  That gravitational pole is counter balanced by Obama.  As the current President, he wields de jure control over much of the party.  

This election will determine who holds the power over the entire party in the future.  If Clinton wins, then Obama will be Jimmy Carter, redux.  He will give speeches and meddle in international affairs, but he will essentially be a side show.  The real power will be completely in the control of the Clinton machine.

If Hillary is the nominee and loses, then the current status quo is preserved, with a divided power structure between the Obama's and the Clintons.

If Obama want to own the Democrat Party, then the Clintons must lose and be destroyed in the process.

The simplest way for Obama to achieve party hegemony is to indict Hillary.   The Clinton's are destroyed and the sole control of the party will pass to Obama.

Since Obama cannot run again, he will have a hand picked proxy run for President. 

That is Joe Biden.

Democrat Dream Team, Plan B
Joe has been hinting around that he wants to run.  But his general incoherence and penchant for gaffes make him a liability in a prolonged campaign.   His best bet for winning is a short, tightly scripted campaign.

A scenario where Hillary is indicted is perfect for Joe -- he gets to step in at the last minute as a reluctant hero and do a short sprint from the convention to the election.  You need to balance this ticket with someone to excite the Bernie Sanders voters and to get the female vote. 

Enter Elizabeth Warren. 

There was a lot of speculation in 2015 about this ticket as a Plan B for the Democrats.  This was before Bernie upset the plan by hanging in there and making the Biden August Surprise a little more complicated. 

All of this speculation boils down to this question:  Does Obama want to be Boss Tweed or does he want to golf and relax? 

If he has any interest in preserving his power, you can expect a bombshell indictment just before the convention.

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