The EMP problem? Good Luck!

 

EMP is one the most dangerous, if unlikely, threat to modern civilization.  A nuclear weapon explosion generates an Electro Magnetic Pulse, or EMP.  A nuclear device detonated high above the US would generate an EMP pulse across the entire country.  This pulse would flash across the line of sight from the explosion and create massive amounts of electricity in things that conduct electricity.  Things like wire, generators, cell phones, pumps, and virtually every other modern device.  That EMP generated electricity would instantly melt every wire, circuit board, computer chip and anything else that can conduct electricity. 

However devastating the aftermath of an EMP attack would be, it probably won’t be the worst of our problems. Such an attack would be an Act of War, which would earn the attacking country a swift nuclear retaliation.  Even if the EMP managed to knock out all US land- and aircraft-based nukes, the nuclear submarines at sea would swiftly retaliate with thousands of nuclear missiles.  This strike would no doubt trigger additional nuclear weapons targeted at the US mainland.   So you can see that a hostile nation EMP strike is nothing to worry about, relatively speaking.  

The only nuclear EMP scenario that does not result in nuclear Armageddon is that of a terrorist strike.  Perhaps a terror organization steals nukes from a nuclear power, say Russia.  They are then able to smuggle these nukes onto a platform capable of getting high over the United States.  Commercial aircraft, perhaps.   They are then able to get the stolen nukes to detonate somehow, and the US has no one to launch nukes against, sparing us nuclear war, but leaving the US to deal with the EMP effects.    Unlikely in the extreme, but possible.

The last scenario for an EMP hit is a Coronal Mass Ejection.  The Sun has been known to periodically blow out massive solar flares that disrupt telecommunications here on earth.  A large enough CME event would have the same effect as an EMP by creating a magnetic pulse across the entire globe.  This event, although unlikely, is possible and would hit us with little or no warning. 

So if we experience an EMP…

In an instant we would return to the 80’s in terms of technology.  No.  Not the 1980’s.  The 1880’s.

No lights, no refrigeration, no pumps, no engines, no phones, no cars, no elevators, no airplanes, no trains.

The effects would be devastating.  Without pumps there is no running water.  Without trains, trucks, harvesters, or refrigeration there will be no food.   Food supplies would run short in days, and the efforts to distribute emergency supplies would be hampered by the lack of communication and transportation.

In the immediate aftermath, hundreds of thousands of people would die.  At the moment of the EMP, planes would fall from the skies, cars on the highway would crash, elevators in high rises would be stuck, exploding electrical equipment would start fires.  There would be no way to call the fire department, no operable firetrucks, no pumps, and no water for the hoses.   The resulting fires would burn millions of buildings to the ground with big cities at risk of massive firestorms that burn out the entire city.

After the fires burned themselves out, the real problems would begin.

Millions would be without shelter.  If the EMP pulse hit during the winter months, low temperatures would kill millions in the northern parts of the country.  Exposure to extreme cold would kill in a few hours, and even moderate temperatures in the 30-40 degree range would kill within days.

The lucky survivors with some form of shelter would be unable to heat their homes unless they have wood stoves or propane heaters. Southerners would face the reverse situation in the summer with no way to cool off in the heat. 

Then things would get really bad.

Food would start to run out within days and weeks.  The average American has only a one-week supply or less of food on hand, and much of that will spoil when freezers and refrigerators stop working.  Most of the food on hand will be difficult to prepare – no electricity for ovens or cook tops, no natural gas pumped into your home.  Medical supplies would disappear, and everyone dependent on regular medication would succumb to the ravages of age and disease.

There will be no police or other first responders.  You can’t call them, and they could only walk to your location if they somehow got your distress call.   The thin veneer of civilization would quickly tear away.  Those displaced by the fires and lacking food or water will attempt to take it from others that do have food and shelter.  Isolated incidents will give way to waves of looting and an orgy of violence.

Then things would get really, really bad.

The food on hand would run out within a few weeks, perhaps a few months if people can make do on canned goods and dried pasta or the outside temperature keeps food on hand from spoiling immediately.  The water situation would become super critical.  With no fresh water on hand, people would need to travel on foot to rivers and streams.  The same lack of running water would also prevent the sewers and toilets from working, so the streams and rivers would quickly become fouled with human waste and other chemicals released in the chaos.  The contaminated water would spread diseases such as cholera and dysentery, further worsening the situation.  People traveling to water sources would be set upon by criminals and gangs.  They would need to form gangs of their own to create safe passages to water.

With limited food, contaminated water in short supply, and no way to procure more in the short term, millions will die of starvation or disease.

Guns would ultimately decide who get food and water, with the organized gangs and militia’s rising to ensure collective safety.  Warlords would take control of the areas where the government, if it functions at all, can’t reach, which would be likely be vast swaths of the rural areas and the inner city.

The world would look a lot like feudal Europe in the aftermath of the Plague, with small bands of survivors huddled inside defensive forts and intergroup communication and trade nearly non-existent.  Rivers and waterways would again become the primary mode of transportation. Armed brigands would control the highways, and there would be battles over key resources like water and arable land.

Compounding the difficulties would be the lack of 19^th century skills or resources.  Even if there were enough horses, plows, and seed, very few people know how to use them properly. 

Out of this chaos and destruction, some people would try to rebuild.

They would try to get the pumps and generators back online.  They would try to get the internal combustion engines working again.   But this would be nearly impossible.

Every modern device depends on computer chips or tiny sensitive electronics on circuit boards.  You can’t just start building these things – the factories and the entire supply chain are dependent on electricity.  To fix the pump (assuming it’s an old school pump with no circuit boards, you would need to re-wire the motor. This would require copper wire, which would have to be made on machines that need electricity.  It would require copper, which needs ore to be mined and transported to machines, all of which need electricity to run.

You would have to re-build from scratch.  Hand tools and horses to build non-electric machines to build the wires to fix the pumps.  The process took us 100 years the first time, but we could probably do it in, say, 5-10 years this time.   The horse shortage alone would take years to alleviate assuming you could double the available stock every year or so.

In the meanwhile, people would have to return to pre-industrial farming techniques.   To make matter worse, there would be a massive shortage of hand tools.  Hoes, scythes, plows, axes, shovels, and picks would be in short supply, with no immediate way to make new ones.

The population would drop to the levels that could be supported by pre-industrial agriculture.   It would probably drop below those levels as it would take a few years to effectively switch from modern agribusiness farming techniques to traditional methods.

So who would be worst off and somewhat better off in the event on an EMP:

People in airplanes, fast moving vehicles, elevators:  Dead. Immediately, if not sooner.  

People in living high rise buildings, business travelers in distant cities, people who’s primary shelter is destroyed, people dependent on medicine: Completely Screwed, likely dead within 1-3 weeks. Exposure, lack of food or water, and disease will claim most of these people.

People in low rise city buildings, suburbs, and smaller urban centers, commuters at work far from home: At Risk, survival is dependent on preparation or luck.   Survival past 30 days is a 50/50 chance, longer survival problematic and dependent on access to food, water, and firearms.  Food riots and gang warfare will kill as many as lack of food and water.

People in rural areas: Decent Chance of survival depending on degree of preparedness.  Will be largely insulated from the urban food riots and will have access to cleaner water.  

So if you hope to survive an EMP… well, good luck.

 

 

 

 

 

Rittenhouse Verdict...

As we wait for the Rittenhouse verdict, I have a few final thoughts: 

There are a number of really questionable things done by the prosecution that make me wonder about the state of criminal jurisprudence in this country: 

Lied about the Law: The prosecution straight up lied about the law.  They repeatedly said that "if you have a gun, you lose the right to self defense'. Kyle should have 'taken a beating' rather than use deadly force.  This is not the law in Wisconsin, or anywhere else for that matter. Why does the Prosecution get to lie about the law? 

Fast and loose with the Rules: The prosecution made several statements that brought down scorn and admonishment from the judge.  Attempting to impeach Kyle for his silence, bringing in evidence that had been ruled out of bounds, and other indiscretions raised the ire of the judge and gave Rittenhouse grounds for a mistrial ruling or a very strong argument on appeal.  

Grosskruetz shadow deal: The lack of interview recordings and the failure to seize his phone are very unusual.   As noted in a previous post, Grosskruetz's treatment by the authorities is very odd and smacks of a behind the scenes deal.  

The defense was weak.  Kyle's defense was on solid factual footing, but missed a few important elements on the narrative: 

Factual misstatements:  the prosecution made a number of factual misstatements or distortions that the defense did not object to or correct.  "Guns aren't Left or right handed" and 'full metal jacket bullets are extra scary and deadly" stand out as false to the gun nuts like me.  These were not corrected by the defense and a critical to the self defense claim:

• Full metal jacket bullets for an AR15 are not extra deadly.  They are the standard ammunition for that gun.  They are used for training, target shooting, varmint hunting and more.  It is the specialty ammo that is out of the ordinary.  It costs more and is used for specific purposes like long range shooting, hunting, or military applications.  The assertion about the full metal jacket ammo is a farce. 
• The fuzzy image that purportedly shows Kyle point the weapon at Zaminski looks like Kyle is handling the weapon left handed.  The prosecution claims that guns are not 'handed', and the defense failed to point out the obvious.  Every picture and video that night show Kyle with the rifle slung for right handed use.  In order for the prosecution's claim to be correct, Kyle would have had to unsling the gun, switch the gun over to his off hand, point it at Zaminski, then shift the gun back and re-sling it.  None of this is consistent with the crystal clear and voluminous images of Kyle carrying the gun right handed.      

Time Parsing:  The prosecution made a big deal out of the frame-by-frame review of each of the shootings.  They then argued that Kyle had the information and the time required to re-assess and take a different course of action. Kyle didn't have to fire again  after the first shot at Rosenbaum.  Kyle had more room to retreat, etc.  All of this is obviously false when you view the video at full speed.  There was less than a second between the first and fourth shots at Rosenbaum.  There was  no time to reassess, and more importantly, no way Kyle could have known that in the moment.  Kyle missed Jump Kick man entirely at the same distance a few minutes later.  Kyle's shooting of Rosenbaum was one single shooting, not four separate incidents you can parse apart in .2 second increments.

Jump Kick Man: If this is what the prosecution and the media want you to believe (Kyle is an active shooter being lawfully detained by heroic citizens) then why has Jump Kick Man not come forward?  If the media narrative is correct, then he would be lauded as a hero.  He could fill in missing pieces of the puzzle such as what the motivations were for attacking Kyle, and what happened in the gap between the first and second shootings.    He has reportedly been identified, but this is still unconfirmed.  But he has
not come forward. This makes the Active Shooter narrative seem rather suspect. 

Protesters: The protestors outside the court are reportedly audible from within the jury room.  Surely this is prejudicial to Kyle.   What are the chances that the jury can reach an impartial decision when death threats and more are being chanted by a mob outside the window.  Why is this allowed? 

Fact Free Legal Hot Takes

 

There are several ways people are attempting to put Kyle Rittenhouse in jail for murder that need to be exposed for the pure evil inherent in their arguments.

Argument #1: Kyle should not have been there.  This argument is really bad – it grants the Rioters Veto on public life.  This would set up a system where one side of the political spectrum is free to protest, riot, destroy, and loot, but the other side has no right to counter-protest or prevent the destruction of the community.  It is the equivalent of ‘she shouldn’t have worn that outfit in that bar’.  They are arguing that when bad people decide to riot the good people have their rights curtailed or invalidated.    This is deeply flawed thinking.

Argument #2:  Opine sans facts.  Many of the arguments I have seen lie or mislead about every single fact in evidence in the case.  “Kyle brought a gun across state lines to hunt down peaceful protestors and he shot unarmed people who had their hands up”.   This sort of fact-free invective is inexcusable in light of 8 days of testimony and hours of video evidence to the contrary.  It is not constructive to spout lies while demanding justice – you are only making things worse.

Argument #3:  Raaaaacist!  There are people arguing that Kyle Rittenhouse is a racist.  This is not supported by the facts, and many of these people seem to think that Kyle shot a bunch of black people.  This is a tragic situation and dragging race into it when there is zero evidence that shooting three white people was in any way based on racism borders is evil.  We have enough racial grievance in this country without making up fake racism to add to the fire.   

If you are going to make arguments in favor of locking someone up for the rest of their life, at least have the decency to use actual facts and think through the public policy implications of your ideas. 

Rittenhouse Prosecution Fail

 

The Kyle Rittenhouse trial is going well… for Kyle. Look at the body language from the Prosecution…

The Prosecutions own witnesses have so far testified:

The first attacker Kyle shot was charging him while screaming ‘Fuck You!!” and lunging for Kyle’s gun. This is after the jury was shown video footage of Rosenbaum shouting ‘Shoot me, n*gger!”, his girlfriend testified he was bi-polar, and others testified he was so deranged that other rioters denied he was with them. Oh, and there was also testimony that Rosenbaum threatened ‘If I see you alone later I am going to kill you”. The Medical examiner testified that the burn marks on Rosenbaum’s hand were consistent with the hand being ‘on or in close proximity to the gun’. Mind you, this is the prosecution’s witness, not a witness for the defense.

The star witness for the prosecution was Gaige Grosskreutz. Gaige testified that he was illegally carrying a Glock pistol when he confronted Kyle. Gaige also stated that when put his hands up in a surrender gesture, Kyle did not shoot him. It was only after Gaige pointed his gun directly at Kyle’s head that Kyle fired. Mind you, this is the prosecution’s witness, not a witness for the defense.

Oh, and Gaige further testified that the second fatal shootee, Huber, was hitting Kyle over the head with a skateboard, and that skateboards are really dangerous as weapons, and that he was afraid Kyle would suffer head trauma if struck. And I repeat… this is the prosecution’s witness, not a witness for the defense.

Other things I learned in the trial include:

Every witness was interviewed on video and their cell phone data copied for analysis. Except Gaige Grosskreutz. His interview was not recorded nor his cell phone taken, despite a search warrant having been issued for it. Grosskreutz testified that he possessed an illegal concealed firearm that night, and his testimony revealed he lied to police and lied on the witness stand. There appears to be a secret deal between the District Attorney and GG that has not been disclosed to the defense or the jury. This is ground for a mistrial.

There are activists making threatening Facebook pronouncement that they are recording the faces of the jurors for the purpose of retribution if they don’t find Kyle guilty. This morning in court it was revealed someone was caught recording the faces of jury as they boarded a bus. No charges have been filed against the would be jury tamperers. This raises huge questions about the ability of the jury to reach an impartial decision.

The FBI apparently flies drones over Antifa and BLM riots and records video. This video is used to prosecute people like Kyle for shooting in self-defense, but has not been used to track down the people who burned, looted, and destroyed billions in property. Also, the FBI will conveniently ‘lose’ high quality video until it is forced to turn it over to the defense.

This entire trial is a farce.

Proud to be an American?

When someone uses a pro-American song as their ring tone….Democrats and other assorted communists and leftists instantly assume he is a pro-Trump Republican…

Judge in the Rittenhouse trial left his cell phone on and it rang during the trial, playing Lee Greenwood’s Proud to be an American. Twitter immediately exploded with all manner of deranged conspiracy theories, but the thing that struck me was this: a man has a patriotic song as his ring tone and everyone automatically assumes which political party he belongs to.

Revealing that if you love your country you obviously aren’t a Democrat!!

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1458547899743277064?s=20    

This Week I Learned...

Joe Biden met with the Pope.  There was widespread criticism that he is not actually Catholic given the many heretical statements he has made that directly contradict the core teaching of the Catholic church, his dubious election to the office, and the rampant sex scandals under his administration.  Some people even said the some of same things about Joe Biden.

Joe Biden met with the Pope while neither wore a mask.  Also, Joe Biden’s press secretary has been diagnosed with COVID despite triple vax and double mask status.  No word yet on if Biden has transmitted COVID to the Pope via his press secretary. 

A pilot says ‘Let’s Go Braves!’ as his Southwest Flight takes off out of Houston.  A reporter mishears it as “Let’s Go Brandon”.  She storms the cockpit and twitter-starts a national political firestorm claiming the pilot represented a terroristic danger.  Members of the fair and unbiased media leapt into action to claim the pilot was likely so deranged that he might fly the plane into the ground based on this statement.  There was a wave of media reports calling for the pilot and the entire crew to be fired.  Also some commentators demanded that the pilots entire family and children be permanently barred from hold jobs due to the risk of radicalization they represent.  Zero reporters actually bothered to ask if it really happened.  It was all fake news, and it exposed who the actual dangerous lunatics are in our society. 

Carbon emissions represent a clear and present danger the future of humanity.  And also 400+ private jets are required to fly all the fancy people to Glasgow to talk about why excessive carbon emissions are a danger, and how you little people need to stop driving cars. 

The Climate Summit people can accurately predict the climate in 100 years.  They are demanding that we all switch to electric cars because of the accuracy of those dire predictions.  Also, they failed to correctly calculate the number of electric car charging stations required at the event, and so many cars attending the Summit were unable to find a place to recharge.   

American Airlines is experiencing ‘bad weather’ resulting in the cancellation of over 2,000 fights.  This has nothing to do with vaccine mandates, and everything to do with bad weather. In unrelated news, American Airline is shocked to learn that the traveling public can see the weather maps that indicate clear skies over 90% of North America. 

The COVID vaccines are being approved for children, the group that is statistically the safest from the effects of the disease.  No discussion of the potential side effects of the vaccine being more dangerous than the disease for this age group is permitted on social media.  In completely unrelated news, new outlets have begun running stories about how “heart attacks in kids are more common that you think” and ‘strokes in children are rare, but you shouldn’t be surprised…”.  These stories are in NO WAY connected to the upcoming wave of vaccines being forced on children despite there being zero evidence that COVID is a threat to children.

The COVID vaccine was approved for children despite the lack of long-term data on the effects because, in the words of one of the approving committee members ‘we have to give it to kids to find out what happens to them’.  In unrelated news, Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine remain banned because despite millions of doses being administered over many years around the world, there is not enough data to take the risk of allowing doctors to prescribe that medicine for adults.

Joe Biden fell asleep during the opening speeches of the Climate Summit.   I don’t blame him.  Who could remain conscious for long with all that droning idiocy?