The EMP problem? Good Luck!

 

EMP is one the most dangerous, if unlikely, threat to modern civilization.  A nuclear weapon explosion generates an Electro Magnetic Pulse, or EMP.  A nuclear device detonated high above the US would generate an EMP pulse across the entire country.  This pulse would flash across the line of sight from the explosion and create massive amounts of electricity in things that conduct electricity.  Things like wire, generators, cell phones, pumps, and virtually every other modern device.  That EMP generated electricity would instantly melt every wire, circuit board, computer chip and anything else that can conduct electricity. 

However devastating the aftermath of an EMP attack would be, it probably won’t be the worst of our problems. Such an attack would be an Act of War, which would earn the attacking country a swift nuclear retaliation.  Even if the EMP managed to knock out all US land- and aircraft-based nukes, the nuclear submarines at sea would swiftly retaliate with thousands of nuclear missiles.  This strike would no doubt trigger additional nuclear weapons targeted at the US mainland.   So you can see that a hostile nation EMP strike is nothing to worry about, relatively speaking.  

The only nuclear EMP scenario that does not result in nuclear Armageddon is that of a terrorist strike.  Perhaps a terror organization steals nukes from a nuclear power, say Russia.  They are then able to smuggle these nukes onto a platform capable of getting high over the United States.  Commercial aircraft, perhaps.   They are then able to get the stolen nukes to detonate somehow, and the US has no one to launch nukes against, sparing us nuclear war, but leaving the US to deal with the EMP effects.    Unlikely in the extreme, but possible.

The last scenario for an EMP hit is a Coronal Mass Ejection.  The Sun has been known to periodically blow out massive solar flares that disrupt telecommunications here on earth.  A large enough CME event would have the same effect as an EMP by creating a magnetic pulse across the entire globe.  This event, although unlikely, is possible and would hit us with little or no warning. 

So if we experience an EMP…

In an instant we would return to the 80’s in terms of technology.  No.  Not the 1980’s.  The 1880’s.

No lights, no refrigeration, no pumps, no engines, no phones, no cars, no elevators, no airplanes, no trains.

The effects would be devastating.  Without pumps there is no running water.  Without trains, trucks, harvesters, or refrigeration there will be no food.   Food supplies would run short in days, and the efforts to distribute emergency supplies would be hampered by the lack of communication and transportation.

In the immediate aftermath, hundreds of thousands of people would die.  At the moment of the EMP, planes would fall from the skies, cars on the highway would crash, elevators in high rises would be stuck, exploding electrical equipment would start fires.  There would be no way to call the fire department, no operable firetrucks, no pumps, and no water for the hoses.   The resulting fires would burn millions of buildings to the ground with big cities at risk of massive firestorms that burn out the entire city.

After the fires burned themselves out, the real problems would begin.

Millions would be without shelter.  If the EMP pulse hit during the winter months, low temperatures would kill millions in the northern parts of the country.  Exposure to extreme cold would kill in a few hours, and even moderate temperatures in the 30-40 degree range would kill within days.

The lucky survivors with some form of shelter would be unable to heat their homes unless they have wood stoves or propane heaters. Southerners would face the reverse situation in the summer with no way to cool off in the heat. 

Then things would get really bad.

Food would start to run out within days and weeks.  The average American has only a one-week supply or less of food on hand, and much of that will spoil when freezers and refrigerators stop working.  Most of the food on hand will be difficult to prepare – no electricity for ovens or cook tops, no natural gas pumped into your home.  Medical supplies would disappear, and everyone dependent on regular medication would succumb to the ravages of age and disease.

There will be no police or other first responders.  You can’t call them, and they could only walk to your location if they somehow got your distress call.   The thin veneer of civilization would quickly tear away.  Those displaced by the fires and lacking food or water will attempt to take it from others that do have food and shelter.  Isolated incidents will give way to waves of looting and an orgy of violence.

Then things would get really, really bad.

The food on hand would run out within a few weeks, perhaps a few months if people can make do on canned goods and dried pasta or the outside temperature keeps food on hand from spoiling immediately.  The water situation would become super critical.  With no fresh water on hand, people would need to travel on foot to rivers and streams.  The same lack of running water would also prevent the sewers and toilets from working, so the streams and rivers would quickly become fouled with human waste and other chemicals released in the chaos.  The contaminated water would spread diseases such as cholera and dysentery, further worsening the situation.  People traveling to water sources would be set upon by criminals and gangs.  They would need to form gangs of their own to create safe passages to water.

With limited food, contaminated water in short supply, and no way to procure more in the short term, millions will die of starvation or disease.

Guns would ultimately decide who get food and water, with the organized gangs and militia’s rising to ensure collective safety.  Warlords would take control of the areas where the government, if it functions at all, can’t reach, which would be likely be vast swaths of the rural areas and the inner city.

The world would look a lot like feudal Europe in the aftermath of the Plague, with small bands of survivors huddled inside defensive forts and intergroup communication and trade nearly non-existent.  Rivers and waterways would again become the primary mode of transportation. Armed brigands would control the highways, and there would be battles over key resources like water and arable land.

Compounding the difficulties would be the lack of 19^th century skills or resources.  Even if there were enough horses, plows, and seed, very few people know how to use them properly. 

Out of this chaos and destruction, some people would try to rebuild.

They would try to get the pumps and generators back online.  They would try to get the internal combustion engines working again.   But this would be nearly impossible.

Every modern device depends on computer chips or tiny sensitive electronics on circuit boards.  You can’t just start building these things – the factories and the entire supply chain are dependent on electricity.  To fix the pump (assuming it’s an old school pump with no circuit boards, you would need to re-wire the motor. This would require copper wire, which would have to be made on machines that need electricity.  It would require copper, which needs ore to be mined and transported to machines, all of which need electricity to run.

You would have to re-build from scratch.  Hand tools and horses to build non-electric machines to build the wires to fix the pumps.  The process took us 100 years the first time, but we could probably do it in, say, 5-10 years this time.   The horse shortage alone would take years to alleviate assuming you could double the available stock every year or so.

In the meanwhile, people would have to return to pre-industrial farming techniques.   To make matter worse, there would be a massive shortage of hand tools.  Hoes, scythes, plows, axes, shovels, and picks would be in short supply, with no immediate way to make new ones.

The population would drop to the levels that could be supported by pre-industrial agriculture.   It would probably drop below those levels as it would take a few years to effectively switch from modern agribusiness farming techniques to traditional methods.

So who would be worst off and somewhat better off in the event on an EMP:

People in airplanes, fast moving vehicles, elevators:  Dead. Immediately, if not sooner.  

People in living high rise buildings, business travelers in distant cities, people who’s primary shelter is destroyed, people dependent on medicine: Completely Screwed, likely dead within 1-3 weeks. Exposure, lack of food or water, and disease will claim most of these people.

People in low rise city buildings, suburbs, and smaller urban centers, commuters at work far from home: At Risk, survival is dependent on preparation or luck.   Survival past 30 days is a 50/50 chance, longer survival problematic and dependent on access to food, water, and firearms.  Food riots and gang warfare will kill as many as lack of food and water.

People in rural areas: Decent Chance of survival depending on degree of preparedness.  Will be largely insulated from the urban food riots and will have access to cleaner water.  

So if you hope to survive an EMP… well, good luck.