The war in the Ukraine drags on and now some people are
calling for a ‘No Fly’ Zone to be enforced over the conflict region.
We should be very clear what a No Fly Zone means: It means World War III.
A No Fly Zone is enforced by shooting down any aircraft that
violate the Zone. Shooting down aircraft
and killing the crews is an Act of War.
If NATO attempts to enforce a No Fly Zone it will
immediately escalate into open warfare between multiple nuclear-armed nations. This is a Very Bad Thing.
Here is what No Fly enforcement would look like:
NATO would declare the No Fly Zone. In order to enforce the
Zone, you have to put NATO aircraft in the air over Ukraine very close to the
front lines. Backed by AWACs airborne
radar, they would fly Combat Air Patrol over the disputed territory.
Russian aircraft would ignore the rules and continue combat flight
operations over Ukraine. Of course, the
Russians have fighter jets too, and they would attempt to protect the bombers,
transports and attack helicopters.
NATO would have a choice: Do nothing and look like impotent morons
or shoot down the offending aircraft.
Shooting down Russian planes would be the first shots of
WWIII.
Of course, the disputed territory is also filled with Russian
antiaircraft missiles. Those missiles
would be fired at the NATO planes. NATO
would respond with SEAD strikes (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses). NATO aircraft would directly attack Russian
troops on the ground in an effort to knock out the SAM (surface to air
missiles) batteries. THIS IS WWIII.
Alternatively, NATO could position Patriot missile batteries
deep inside Ukraine to enforce the No Fly Zone. These missile systems would need to be
manned by NATO troops because the Ukrainians are not trained to use them. The Russians, being shot at by SAM’s, would target
those positions and attack them. NATO
troops would die. This is WWIII.
If NATO somehow managed to establish local air superiority
over Ukraine, Russia could still target NATO aircraft with long range SAM’s
launched from within Russia. This would
force NATO planes to attack Russian soil to suppress those missile
batteries.
WWIII would quickly spread and escalate.
The US would send a Carrier battle group into the region to
allow the Navy to support the effort.
Russian submarines would find that to be a tempting target, and NATO
would be forced to start sinking submarines in order to protect the carriers.
Flying combat missions over Ukraine from Poland or Germany
would greatly reduce the amount of time the fighters could loiter in the combat
zone. You would need multiple tankers
for air-to-air refueling. NATO would increase combat effectiveness by using
Ukrainian airbases. This would require
NATO troops on the ground to protect against Russian special forces attacks.
NATO would need to knock out Russian radar sites near the Ukrainian
border. These sites inside The Motherland
are well defended and would be very costly to attack. NATO would resort to cruise missiles to evade
and degrade the air defenses. These
weapons normally carry high explosives warheads, but cruise missiles can also
carry nuclear warheads. From the Russian
point of view, a wave of cruise missiles crossing the border headed toward
Moscow would be indistinguishable from a nuclear first strike.
The Russians would have 5-15 minutes to decide – is this a
conventional strike targeting our air defense network? Or is NATO launching nukes in an effort to
cripple Russia’s nuclear defense capabilities and kill Putin? Well, comrade, do we launch our nukes, or do
we risk nuclear annihilation? You now
have 4 minutes to decide….
And that, folks, is how nuclear wars get started.
A No Fly Zone is a terrible, awful, no good idea. Best case scenario it starts WWIII and kills
millions. Worst case scenario it leads
to nuclear war and the death of billions, if not the outright extinction of the
human race.
If you are cheerleading for a No Fly Zone, you are cheering for
the apocalypse.
