Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Election Fraud?

What it Look Like to Me…


The COVID pandemic is real but wildly exaggerated, and was used as a political weapon against Trump.  The media hyped it, Democrat state governments ordered draconian shutdowns, and there was a generalized hysteria.

The COVID pandemic panic was then used to justify massive changes to the way we vote.  These changes were used to enable rampant voter fraud.  Widespread use of Mail-in ballots, the proactive mailing of ballots out to all registered voters, extensions of deadlines, and more, all create opportunities for fraud. 

The Election Polls were wildly off, either because of ineptitude in tracking ‘shy Trump voters’, or bias in not believing the ‘shy Trump voter’ was real, or through deliberate malfeasance.   This created a sense the President was vulnerable beyond what the facts revealed. 

The Democrats used the polling data to estimate how much they had to cheat in certain crucial states.  They used the mail in ballots to effect voter fraud during the run up to the election.  The Media even ran cover stories predicting that the effects of the fraud would be seen in an early Trump lead with in person voting that would evaporate once the mail in ballots were tallied.   The fix was in, so to speak.

On election day it became apparent that the Democrats had under estimated the amount by which they needed to cheat.  They believed their own fake polls, it seems.  It looked like Trump was going to win easily on election night.  Betting markets and financial markets responded accordingly.  The Chinese Yuan began to sink, the stock market futures began to rise, and election betting sites favored Trump.

Then the Democrats hit the panic button. 

Vote counting was summarily halted in key states.  This is completely unprecedented.  While most state are able to count the ballots in a few hours, for some reason key states like Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and others just stopped counting.  During the ‘halt’, Republicans went home and Democrats secretly continued to count votes without supervision.   Massive piles of ballots were introduced with no chain of custody or proper validation.

The Democrats were panicked and began hastily creating additional fraudulent ballots.  They could no longer do this in a stealthy way, as the results were already in across most of the precincts.  The fraud was now more blatant and concentrated.  This is why you see 200% turn-out and massive same day voter registration in only a few Democrat controlled areas. This is why there are thousands of ballots with no votes recorded down ballot.  They didn’t have time to vote the full ballot and create enough votes to win the Presidential.  

When the counting resumes, they need to hide the irregularities.  Republican judges are barred, forced to stand back so far they cannot observe, or the windows of the counting room are papered over.  Massive fraud is alleged to have happened out of view of the election observers.   Ballots for Biden that should have been disqualified were accepted, and other ballots destroyed.  Memory sticks containing critical vote counts were ‘lost’ for several hours. The chain of custody for ballots and votes was broken all across the country. 


After all of this insanity, the results show Biden has pulled ahead.  The media declares him the winner.

But many questions remain.  The voting returns show massive abnormalities.  Beyond the 200% turnout numbers, the wildly ahistorical results, many of the patterns make no sense.  Milwaukee has massive voter turn out, but other similar cities like Cleveland show normal or below average turn out.  Mail-in ballot in swing states favor Biden by much wider margins than the same ballots in other states.  The vote tallies that don’t follow historical patterns are concentrated in Democrat controlled areas and the results always skew toward Biden.   The numbers themselves follow frequency patterns that would indicate fraud under other circumstances.   Widespread reports of fraud, deception, or just behavior that undermined our faith in the results.

There are a number of glitches, transposition errors and mistakes in every single swing state, and yet, somehow, the laws of chance are overthrown because every ‘error’ favors Joe Biden. 

When you add up all of the .00001% probability of happening in the absence of fraud occurrences, you can reach only one conclusion:  Election Fuckery was afoot.

It is obvious that the Democrat party has been playing fast and loose with the rules, and that the Trump wave was so large they were forced to cheat more than expected, thus exposing their malfeasance.

What remains to be seen is what, if anything, can or will be done about it.






Sent from Mail for Windows 10


Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Final Prediction:Trump

Here is my prediction for the 2020 Election: Trump wins a narrow victory after several weeks of lawsuits, fraud accusations, street violence, and hyperventilation by the Media. 

Reasons Trump Wins: 

  1.  The Polls are wrong.  5 years of screaming at people, punching people, and threatening their jobs and the lives if they express a pro-Trump thought will naturally create a lot of secret Trump support.  The error in the polls will be larger this time than in 2016. 
  2. The economy is too good.   54% of people polled said they were better of today than they were 4 years ago.  This is despite the terrible harm inflicted by the COVID shutdown policies.   People vote their pocketbook. 
  3. Minority support is at record levels.  The Black and Latino populations will still mostly vote for Democrats, but Trump has peeled off much higher numbers that any other candidate.  As much as 30% black support for Trump, according to some polls. 
  4. Violence does not sell.   People have had a good, long look at Democratic governance in the run up to this vote.  People are voting with the feet and moving out of cities, buying guns at a record pace, and preparing for street violence post-election. None of the first-time gun owners or new suburbanites are likely to vote for the party of the looters and the gun grabbers. 
  5. Voter Turn-out.  Joe Biden is not on the ballot.  Only ‘Trump’ and ‘Not Trump’ are on the ballot.  The Trump base is clearly more energized and is apparently voting in record numbers.  It will remain to be seen if the Not Trump enthusiasm can match the pro-Trump enthusiasm on election day.   Personally, I doubt it. 

The Democrats are being misled by the polls to think that this election is over.  They are in for a big surprise.  Trump is going to win, and they are not emotionally prepared for the loss.  This scenario, of course, creates a huge risk to the peaceful transition of power. 

Shocked by the loss, they will react exactly as they did in 2016, only this time on steroids. Since Trump is OrangeManBad, and everyone they know hates him, and he was losing in the polls, the only explanation for the Trump victory is some sort of malfeasance.  Last time it was Russian Interference, this time it will be a combination of fraud, voter suppression, racism, and, yes, more Russian interference. 

After the 2016 loss, we had investigations, hearings, impeachment, and more as ways to try to undo the election results.  This time there is a real threat of violence.   Antifa and BLM have already been rioting in the street over virtually any issue.  It won’t take much to get them out and destroying things.

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Why are Academics all Commies?


The vast majority of Academics are Marxists, or at the very least, socialist. 

But why?  What is it about being an Academic that makes them so inclined toward the advocacy of oppression, mass murder, and unbearable poverty?

They will claim it is because they are so smart.  You see, only the rubes and the fly-over country hicks would fall for the lies of Capitalism.  They are woke because they are brilliant.   Or so they would claim. 

Their intelligence does play a factor, but not in the way that they think. 

The typical Leftist professor or grad student is smarter than average.  That fact made them the stars of their grade school and higher education experience.   They were book smart, so they got the best grades, and got lavish praise from the teachers.  They were at the top of the Academic rewards system.

The other kids in school couldn’t keep up with them. 

The quarterback with the great hair and a winning smile didn’t understand calculus.  The Academic had to tutor him on weekends so the dumb jock could squeak past with a C average.  

The bouncy cheerleader with her insipid enthusiasm for life struggled to understand Shakespeare.  That annoying bimbo didn’t know that the Academic exists, but he was comforted knowing she couldn’t write a coherent paragraph about Proust. 

The burnouts in the smoker’s circle aren’t even worth the Academic’s time.  Those kids were high half the time, and didn’t even bother trying the rest of the time.  They were the bottom of the intellectual pyramid, and the Academic sneered  as he walked past them on the way to the library. 

In the Academic setting, all was right with the world.  The smart kid was on top and got all the rewards, and the lesser intellects of the frat boys, jocks, cheerleaders and burnouts couldn’t compete even if they shunned him socially and failed to notice he exists outside of the classroom. 

But then they go back for their High School or college reunion.   Things have changed, and not for the better from the perspective of the Academic.  

The Academic is now working as a grad school student or Teaching Assistant.  He is making $18,000 a year. Some of his Academic friends have left the cloistered world of the university and are now unemployed, working as a barista, or perhaps they are a wage slave at the Apple store making slightly above minimum wage. Between all of them only one has a working car, a run-down old Subaru that smells slightly of patchouli and hemp. 

The quarterback jock with the charismatic smile is now the VP of Sales for some VC-funded software startup.  He has options valued at over $5 million, and a Porsche in the driveway.  He is wearing a suit that costs more than the Academic makes in a month. 

The vapid cheerleader is now a real estate broker selling houses in the high-end suburb where she lives with her well-scrubbedand well-mannered children.  She works part time while taking care of the family, and pulls down almost $150,000 in commissions a year.  

The burnout became a plumber.  He still smokes some weed, but his plumbing business has taken off and is now running 3 full-time crews. He has a small cottage at the lake and pulls a $35,000 bass boat behind his $75,000 pickup truck.  

The Academic looks at this and recoils in horror.  Something is very wrong. 

He is the smart one.  He is the one that should be rewarded, not these lesser intellects. Something is desperately wrong. 

When confronted with the reality that everyone he hates and everyone to which he is intellectually superior are way more successful in life, he must face the facts: something is wrong with him, or something is wrong with the system. 

Well, you know which option all Academics chooseHe blames the system.

Capitalism is flawed and broken by virtue of the fact that the intellectual is not on top.  When the frat boys, jocks and burnouts are more successful and have more stuff then the Academic, it is proof positive that capitalism is evil and flawed.  

If the capitalist world were fair, the Academic would have a Porsche and a lake house, not the knuckle draggers.  The fact that the stupid kids he tutored have those things fills the Academic with envy and rage, and the insatiable desire to burn it all down.


So the Academic turns to radical Marxism.   

He is assured by the Marxists that his abject failure as a human is not his fault, but rather it is the oppressive patriarchy of Capitalism and Western Civilization that is keeping him down.  Marxism relieves him of the guilt of not being successful while promising to wreak revenge on his lessers once the balance of power has shifted: 

Just wait till the revolution, Jocko. We will see how much your stock options are worth when we nationalize your little company. The People’s Compensation Committee will wipe that affable smile right off your smarmy face. 

Let’s see you ignore me now, little miss cheerleaderI run the People’s Food Distribution committee.  Let’s see how well your bratty kids fare on half rations, you bubbly bitch. You’ll be begging me for a favor, won’t you?

How well does that boat run now, plumber boy? The People’s Committee on Energy Independence has converted all fossil fuels to solar power and renewables, so let’s see you run those 275hp Mercury Marine outboards across the lake on soy bean oil. Oh, by the way, we are outlawing your pickup truck.  You can apply for a permit to own a Prius to carry your stupid plumbers gear around. 

The Academic can’t admit that intelligence is not the only factor in human success.  He cannot abide the fact charisma, persistence, enthusiasm, and plain old hard work are rewarded more than a lazy intellect.  Since he cannot compete in a capitalist world, he must tear it all down and rule over the ashes.   

This underlying anger and pathology explains the rage and hostility of the Academics Marxists.  They blame the system for their personal inadequacies. They are projecting the blackness of their soul on the system as a whole.


Saturday, July 25, 2020

An Open Letter to Progressives

 An Open Letter to the
Legion of Lamentation
 (Na├»ve, under-educated and undisciplined malcontents)
By: E.P. Unum
July 13, 2020
It is a fact of life in our country today that there are people who live to be offended. They’re called Progressives. They are offended by Confederate statues and the Confederate Flag, by monuments that they say celebrate white supremacy and colonialism, by Trump supporters, by Trump himself, and by those who refuse to get on their knees and grovel before Black Lives Matter.
Well, I am not one of them, and I’ve got a big revelation for them.
Here are ten things for which I will never apologize, and I don’t give sour owl shit if you’re offended by any of them:
1.  I’m white – I was born white and I don’t feel guilty about slavery, segregation, the Trail of Tears or the treatment of Chinese railroad workers – because (now get this) I didn’t have anything to do with any of these.
I’m no more responsible for these injustices than the Indian of today is responsible for the Black Hole of Calcutta.
The idea of racial guilt is absurd. White privilege and white supremacy is a myth. Where is the White Miss America Contest, White History Month and White Entertainment Television? Where are the white-only colleges and universities, white-only dating sites or white-only bars and restaurants? Where are the quotas and set-asides for Caucasians?
Do we need to address these things? To some degree, yes, but not by rioting, tearing down statues, looting and destroying businesses, changing names of sports teams and products We can and should address these things with civility and dialogue by all concerned.
2.  I love America – I believe in American exceptionalism. America pioneered representative government guided by a written constitution.
We fought a war with 620,000 dead to end slavery.
We defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan and liberated the death camps.
We saved Europe from tyranny,twice, in the 20th century and then, with American investment, innovation, resourcefulness and generosity, rebuilt the economies of 17 nations of Europe and the nation of Japan.
Our arms kept communism from conquering the world. Our factories and workshops produced a flood of inventions and products that benefited humanity.
We built the greatest most respected medical system in the world and earned more Nobel Prizes in Medicine than any other nation on earth by a factor of ten!
What country has done as much – especially in 244 years, a relative hiccup in time?
3.  I’m a Christian – I love God and his son Jesus Christ. I am proud of my faith, but I do not wear it on my sleeve.
I respect all religions. I also believe in the State of Israel. Modern Israel is a miracle and a fulfillment of Biblical prophecy. Israel is a beleaguered outpost of civilization in a savage region and a bulwark against the forces of darkness.
The next time your physician gives you a shot of penicillin, look up who discovered this miracle drug.
4.  My heroes include George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt – Washington and Lincoln were indispensable men.
Washington defeated the greatest army on earth and led our country for the first quarter-century of its existence.
Lincoln saved the Union, abolished slavery and inspired generations with his rhetoric.
The Declaration of Independence flames with the eloquence of Thomas Jefferson, arguably the most intelligent man to ever serve as President of the United States.
Andrew Jackson, the hero of the Battle of New Orleans, represented the pioneer spirit.
Teddy Roosevelt led the charge into the 20th century, the American Century.
Together, they gave us a country so free that malcontents like Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Talib can dump on it without fear of reprisal.
Indeed, if you listen to all the complaints voiced from all the liberal/progressive democrats and communists like NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio, you are hard pressed to understand why there are so few people leaving our country! It is harder still to understand why, with all of our so called “problems”, millions of people from around the world want to come here!
5.  I support our Police, and I believe police officers are generally decent/honorable men and women who are doing a difficult, dangerous, often thankless job – You couldn’t pay me enough today to do it. Besides risking their lives every time they go to work, they bear the added burden of listening to insults shouted at them by spoiled, ungrateful people many of whom are wet behind their ears and probably still wearing diapers.
Police today have become the punching bag for the nation and, sadly, they receive little or no respect or support from their superiors and the gaggle of incompetent democratic mayors around the country. And, like our military, they are all that stands between us and the abyss.
When the Twin Towers were attacked in New York City on 9/11, we were reminded by liberals to not judge all Muslims by the actions of a few. Yet today, mobs are willing to judge all police by the actions of a few police. Explain that one to me. 
Defunding the police because of a few "bad apples" is just plain STUPID because the end result will be more crime. If you find that difficult to comprehend, just check the crime statistics for these liberal democratic controlled cities: New York, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Los Angeles, San Francisco, St. Louis, Newark, Trenton and check out the number of shootings and stabbings on any given weekend! You would think these cities are in a war zone.
6.  I support the Second Amendment, and I own weapons – It’s one of the reasons why Japan thought long and hard about attacking us. It’s a major reason why we’ll never have a Holocaust here. Europe has had the divine right of kings, religious persecution, Communism and Nazism. We have the Second Amendment.
The anarchy in our streets, coupled with calls to defund the police, only serve to underscore the need for civilian gun ownership.
7.  Reparations are racial plunder. The idea of racial guilt is an obscenity from the dark recesses of 19th century European history – There’s no group in the world that hasn’t been oppressed at some point in time.
Will Denmark pay reparations to the English for the Danelaw? Will Mongols and Manchus compensate the Chinese? Will Japan compensate the Chinese for the Rape of Nanjing? How about the English and the Irish, the Mongols and the Russians, the Cossacks and Jews? Will bi-racial Barack Obama take money out of one pocket and put it in another?
8. There are only two genders. Deal with it – Gender is determined at birth by your DNA. Just as you can’t change your DNA, you can’t change your sex. You should not be able to force others to participate in your fantasy. Reality isn’t hateful.
9. I support President Trump and will vote for him in November, 2020 – The president loves this country. He really does have Israel’s back. Who else is strong enough to stand up to China and Iran?
Unlike almost everyone else in Washington, as a businessman, he understands finance and the market economy.
He's giving us judges who deliberate instead of legislate. And he has the guts not to be liked.
Prior to COVID-19, President Trump built the greatest most prosperous economy in the world and he gave power back to the people.
He understands that we are a people who happen to have a government, not the other way around, and this American experiment in which government derives its just power from the consent of the governed is still the most unique, treasured and progressive form of government in the history of mankind.
10. You have a right to disagree with me, but you do not have a right to try to silence me – Being offended doesn’t trump the First Amendment.
Attacking statues and assaulting those with different values is the kind of thing we saw in Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Russia.
Generations of Americans died for freedom of speech, not freedom to suppress speech.
To say you’re offended is merely an attempt to prioritize your feelings above everyone and everything else. It’s not an argument, but a call to end discussion – an admission of intellectual impotence.
Being offended isn’t a mark of virtue; it’s a sign that you’re a big, blubbering baby who will throw a tantrum if you can’t get your way. Wagging fingers and shouting obscenities at me is just plain disrespectful, and might get you a punch in the nose.

Monday, July 6, 2020

The Death of Science

The Left claims yet another victim.   This time it is science itself. 

I have claimed for years that the science behind the Global Climate Change scam was corrupted by Leftist politics.  This is a challenging claim to prove, given the complex nature of the science and the long term predictions involved.  I will be long dead before the science of AGW is proven with actual temperature readings from 100 years in the future.  

There is more contemporaneous proof at hands however. 

The Left has thoroughly corrupted the science of Epidemiology.  

We are now being told to believe the science that makes baseball games, Trump Rallies, and 4th of July parades are insanely risky for Coronavirus transmission and must be banned. 

We are also being told to believe the science that Coronavirus transmission is not a risk if the event is a Gay Pride parade. BLM Protest, or a statue desecration party.  


What causes riots? Election Years, or course!

 Here we go again.  If there is rioting in the US, it must be an election year. 

This week we saw video of the police kneeling on the neck of George Floyd shortly before he died while in police custody. The video has gone viral, and the police officers involved have been fired.  The protests have turned into riots, with police cars being attacked and store being looted. 

While the initial incident is tragic, and the loss of life terrible, the subsequent hysteria and rioting are boring and predictable.   The Media and the Left are seeking to sharpen the racial divide in this country by whipping up a racially charged hysteria.

The same weekend that this man died at the hands of the Police, 60 people were shot and 9 killed in Chicago.  Not a single news story was done nationally about the carnage in Chicago.  The largely black-on-black wave of never-ending violence does not get any attention, but a single death in Minneapolis results in wall to wall coverage that stokes protests and riots.

If it seems like there is a pattern to the periodic appearance of Black Lives Matters and other leftist protest groups on the national stage, well, that is because there is.   Every election year, like clockwork, the Left manufactures a protest cycle about some incident that fits the narrative.

This is an election year and the summer hasn’t even gotten started.  Expect that this will get worse before it gets better.

Try Harder to be an American

If you think the most important thing to know about Washington and Jefferson is that they owned slaves...
If you think COVID means a you can’t gather at a family funeral and your relatives must die alone, but George Floyd can safely have thousands of mourners at multiple memorials across the country ...
If you think Gay Pride parades don’t create pandemic risk, but Trump rallies do...
If you think Christopher Columbus was a genocidal maniac, but Che Guevara and Mao are cool to wear on your t-shirt...
If you think that police killing 19 unarmed black people is a bigger problem than the thousands of black people murdered each year by other black people...
If you think police are a threat to the public and must be defunded, but that law abiding citizens should not have guns to defend themselves and should just wait for the cops to show up...
If you think wearing a mask is so ineffective against a virus so we had to shut down the entire country for months to prevent a pandemic, but that masks are so effective we must now mandate their use...
If you think demonstrators burning cars and tearing down statues is acceptable, but singing at church is too dangerous...
If you think a demented warlord creating an ‘autonomous zone’, handing out AR15s from the trunk of a car, and summarily executing black children as car thieves is perfectly fine, but a suburban couple defending their home against a threatening mob is evidence of a crime...
If you think flying the Mexican flag on Cinco de Mayo is an expression of national pride and culture, but the flying American flag is a sign of racism, jingoism, and hatred...
If you think the Cheyenne and Lakota conquering the lands around Mt Rushmore is the natural order of things, but the United States conquering that same land is proof positive that the US is corrupt and evil at the core....
If you think ‘mostly peaceful’ protesters gathering in the thousands is perfectly fine, but patriotic Americans watching a 4th of July parade is dangerous....
...You are the problem.
Your hatred of the United States, our history, and the entirety of western civilization is warping your mind and coloring your judgement
You are letting your politics override your common sense and your understanding of facts, epidemiology, history, and fairness.
July 4th is a celebration of the founding of the greatest country in the history of the world. Try harder to appreciate the gift that you have been given.
Try harder to be an American.

Black Lives Don’t Really Matter

Black Lives Matter is a political group that pops into the news every recent election cycle. The group’s name implies that they care about Black lives. The truth is quite the opposite. As we noted several years ago, BLM is merely a Leftist policy group using Black people as an emotional shield while promoting policies that have nothing to do with improving the lives of actual black people

They claim their mission is “to eradicate white supremacy and build local power to intervene in violence inflicted on Black communities by the state and vigilantes”. Notably absent from the mission statement is the primary source of violence against Black communities: other black people.

Chicago has had nearly 1,000 murders a year for many years running. The vast majority of these crimes are Black on Black, and most of them go unsolved. More Black people were killed in a single weekend than unarmed Black people have been killed by police in an entire year.

George Floyd becomes a martyr and a cause celeb when he dies at the hands of a cop. David Dorn gets murdered by rioters and his death is swept under the rug. Who is David Dorn? He is a retired St. Louis police captain that was gunned down by looters during the riots that were supposed to honor the memory of George Floyd.

BLM makes a celebrity out of a multiple time felon but completely ignores the death of an honorable member of the community. That should tell you something about the priorities of BLM. A quick search of the BLM site finds zero reference to Dorn, but links to #Defund the Police and Rest in Power, Beautiful.

If Black Lives Mattered cared about actual black people, they would be holding protest marches on the southside of Chicago, not on Rodeo Drive. Instead they make policy demands about ICE and illegal aliens, and demand that we defund the police. The website is heavy on the rhetoric, and short on detailed proposals. They list a dozen things BLM will focus on without a single word of explanation of what they mean and how they would implement change.

BLM is a Leftist scam that doesn’t care about the lives of actual Black people.

Monday, May 4, 2020

No, We are NOT all in this together

As the Corona virus pandemic stretches into infinity, we are being subjected to a relentless campaign of unity slogans such as the insipid “we are all in this together”.

No.  We are not.

Some Americans are making huge sacrifices. They have lost their jobs, shuttered their small businesses, or closed their restaurant or hair salon.  Some of us are seeing our lives destroyed in the effort to tamp down the spread of the virus. 

Some Americans are making small sacrifices.  They are working from home, not going out to eat or party, not getting their hair cut or colored.  They are slightly inconvenienced by the whole ordeal, but it is not catastrophic for them. 

Some Americans are not sacrificing at all.  They are not confined to their homes.  They have not lost their jobs. In fact, they are gaining vast amounts of power and publicity as they sail through this crisis untouched.  Politicians, TV hosts, internet bloggers, and other talking heads are loving every minute of this disaster.  

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot shuts down the entire city, threatening police action and arrests for those who violate her edicts while she violates her own rules by getting her haircut.  Why, you ask?  Well, she needs to have a haircut, you see.  She is more important than you.

Chris Cuomo claims to have COVID-19 and is self-quarantining.  Until he goes to the Hamptons and tries to run over a cyclist.

Wealthy scion and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker confines everyone to their homes for months.   When asked why his wife was allowed to travel out of state, the Governor bristled “leave my family out of it”.

The elites are jetting off to summer homes or sending Facebook updates about their epic sacrifices from their 15,000 sf mansions. They have not missed a paycheck or struggled to pay for rent or groceries.  Sure, they had to reduce the hours of the downstairs maid, and that has been a challenge, but they have not had any real impact.

Worse still is that the unemployed and the financially distraught are being told by the unaffected elites that the sacrifices should continue.  Shelter in place order are being extended for months in places that are largely unaffected by the virus.

The infuriating part is to hear all the elites and politicians that are unaffected, or worse, enjoying new found power, telling the unemployed and devastated ‘we are all in this together’.

No, we are not.

Friday, March 20, 2020

Is this really the way it ends?

Well, this virus thing is getting out of hand.

We have shut down large parts of the country. Sports, meetings, churches, restaurants, bars, athletic clubs, and retail shopping are closed indefinitely. All in the name of slowing the spread of the COVID-19 virus and saving some number of lives.

Currently there is no end in sight for the shutdown. Will it be weeks? Months? Some sources are now saying it might be as long as 18 months.

The economic and political costs are potentially severe if we keep this up for very long.

What will happen to our society if we are shut down indefinitely due to the virus? Best case scenario, a deep economic depression that takes years from which to recover.

Worst case scenario, the end of Western Civilization.

You scoff. I am being ridiculous, you say.

Well, people were stabbing each other over a few rolls of toilet paper last week. What do you think is going to happen when the food and the toilet paper run out for real?

Modern economies in the information age are built on a lot of exchanging of goods and services. Only a very small fraction of the population actually grows food or makes stuff. The rest of us are pretty far removed from those basic industries.

The current set of policies has thrown millions of people out of service work, and the next set of impending bans (air travel, for one) will put millions more out of work. Basic civil liberties will be destroyed as we enforce our bans and quarantines. The government will need to step in and provide income and basic food supplies for these purposefully unemployed people.

The government at every level is already straining under the burden of trillions of dollars in debt. Many states, like Illinois, are already at the verge of bankruptcy. Tax receipts will fall and social services costs will skyrocket, and the government will run out of cash. When they try to raise taxes and borrow more money, they will soon find that there is no one to buy the debt and no more transactions to tax. Then what happens?

The implosion of tax receipts and the massive wave of new people on the public dole will collapse state and local governments. They will not be able to meet their obligations. They will lay off hundreds of thousands of workers, stop providing basic services, thus contributing to the vicious cycle of collapse.

The Federal Government will go through the same cycle. Within months, the government will default on debts and be forced to shut down. They will pump copious amounts of currency into the failing economy, but this will only kick off massive inflation. The currency will collapse, and with it, the Federal government’s ability to borrow or pay its bills.

Commerce will grind to a halt. The government will step in and nationalize entire industries to keep things going. If you doubt this, note that there are already calls for the Federal Government to take over the manufacture and distribution of medical ventilators, and we don’t even have a real shortage of them yet, just an imagined shortage!

Food will disappear off shelves like if does in every other government planned economy. Real panic buying will set in, and not just for toilet paper. Stores will be looted. The government will stop basic policing (This has already happened in Philadelphia, just in case you think I am exaggerating here), and mayhem and civil unrest will set in.

Basic civil liberties will vanish. Well, many of them are gone already. Want to worship in your faith? Nope, churches are closed. Want to peacefully protest? Nope, even small gatherings are banned. Want to own a gun to defend your stockpile of toilet paper? Nope, there are bans on gun sales and ownership being imposed. As of a few moments ago, the Governor of Illinois just confined the whole state to our homes for three weeks (!!!).  Is any of this reasonable?  Constitutional?

Within a very short time span, the entire system will collapse. Bands of pillagers will roam the streets, looting and burning buildings will drive people out into the night, and the complete collapse of civil society will ensue. Again, if you believe I am exaggerating, think of what happened when a there was a jury verdict people didn’t like in LA. The Rodney King riots will look like a lark compared to what will happen when the pay checks bounce, the food runs out, and the police are not enforcing the law.

It took 70 years for the Soviet Union to collapse. 20 years for Venezuela to descend into starvation and anarchy. And those countries were trying to make things work. We are actively and purposefully shutting down the economy, with nationalization of key industries to follow. The collapse of the highly leveraged, consumer-driven, US economy will be far more rapid, measured in months, not decades.

I hope the price of avoiding ‘death by flu’ is less than the complete collapse of the entire system. If this dark vision comes to pass, tens of millions will die, and it will take centuries to recover, if ever.

Oh, and if society collapses and we are living amid the ruins roasting rats on a stick over a burning rubber tire, we few survivors in the wastelands will probably all die of the flu anyway.

Corona Panic

Our reaction to Chinese Corona Virus, or COVID-19, seems a bit over the top.

It is hard to reconcile the reaction to past epidemics like SARS and H1N1 with the current near total hysteria and shut down of our economy.

The virus appears to be slightly more transmissible than these two previous pandemic causing viruses, but is also less lethal.

In fact, it is unclear exactly how dangerous COVID-19 is. The statistics are either unreliable or vary widely. At the moment, the virus is 20x more dangerous in Italy than it is in Germany. This makes it very difficult to predict the actual mortality in the event of an outbreak.

The people that are dying of this appear to be limited to elderly patients with other underlying conditions. Healthy adults get sick but recover, and children seem largely unaffected. While every death is a tragedy, it does not appear that this virus is going to wipe out huge swaths of the population. The numbers may not be any worse than the typical flu season, if some of the statistics are accurate.

So why are we in modified stationary panic over this disease? Why have we shut down the entire services industry in the country? Why have we purposefully pushed the economy into recession or depression?

  • It could be that the masses are under-educated and don’t understand statistics or probability.
  • It could be that the news media is whipping up hysteria to bolster ratings.
  • It could be that the news media is trying to create a sense of chaos to undermined the Trump administration.
  • It could be that Trump’s lack of verbal finesse and awkward communication style don’t give people a sense of calm.
  • It could be that the news media and the Democrats are trying to crash the economy as a way to get Trump out of office.
  • It could be that Democrats are trying to whip up hysteria and panic to let them enact their policy preferences for Nationalized Health care, Medicare for All, Paid Sick Leave, Universal basic income, and gun control.
  • It could be that the near absolute safety and comfort of a rich capitalist society has left people so infantilized that they cannot cope with the slightest threat.
It could be any one of those things.

But I think it is all of them happening at the same time.