Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Final Prediction:Trump

Here is my prediction for the 2020 Election: Trump wins a narrow victory after several weeks of lawsuits, fraud accusations, street violence, and hyperventilation by the Media. 

Reasons Trump Wins: 

  1.  The Polls are wrong.  5 years of screaming at people, punching people, and threatening their jobs and the lives if they express a pro-Trump thought will naturally create a lot of secret Trump support.  The error in the polls will be larger this time than in 2016. 
  2. The economy is too good.   54% of people polled said they were better of today than they were 4 years ago.  This is despite the terrible harm inflicted by the COVID shutdown policies.   People vote their pocketbook. 
  3. Minority support is at record levels.  The Black and Latino populations will still mostly vote for Democrats, but Trump has peeled off much higher numbers that any other candidate.  As much as 30% black support for Trump, according to some polls. 
  4. Violence does not sell.   People have had a good, long look at Democratic governance in the run up to this vote.  People are voting with the feet and moving out of cities, buying guns at a record pace, and preparing for street violence post-election. None of the first-time gun owners or new suburbanites are likely to vote for the party of the looters and the gun grabbers. 
  5. Voter Turn-out.  Joe Biden is not on the ballot.  Only ‘Trump’ and ‘Not Trump’ are on the ballot.  The Trump base is clearly more energized and is apparently voting in record numbers.  It will remain to be seen if the Not Trump enthusiasm can match the pro-Trump enthusiasm on election day.   Personally, I doubt it. 

The Democrats are being misled by the polls to think that this election is over.  They are in for a big surprise.  Trump is going to win, and they are not emotionally prepared for the loss.  This scenario, of course, creates a huge risk to the peaceful transition of power. 

Shocked by the loss, they will react exactly as they did in 2016, only this time on steroids. Since Trump is OrangeManBad, and everyone they know hates him, and he was losing in the polls, the only explanation for the Trump victory is some sort of malfeasance.  Last time it was Russian Interference, this time it will be a combination of fraud, voter suppression, racism, and, yes, more Russian interference. 

After the 2016 loss, we had investigations, hearings, impeachment, and more as ways to try to undo the election results.  This time there is a real threat of violence.   Antifa and BLM have already been rioting in the street over virtually any issue.  It won’t take much to get them out and destroying things.

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