Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Occam's Razor says.. Chris Hayes is a moron!

Chris Hayes tweeted out perhaps the most moronic tweet of the day.  He invokes Occam's Razor to claim that the most likely explanation for Trump and his team denying that there is any involvement with the Russians is... 'a vast criminal conspiracy'!

 He clearly does not understand what Occam's Razor is, or how it works.

As Wikipedia explains,

Occam's razor ... is the problem-solving principle that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one. When presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.

It is typically used to debunk crazy conspiracy theories. 

For example, which competing theory has the fewest assumptions: 

Chemtrails are secret mind control chemicals sprayed by the government as a part of a vast criminal conspiracy, or, simple physics dictates that water vapor from jet engines condenses in the cold.  

The Moon Landings were faked as a part of a vast criminal conspiracy, or, we landed on the moon. 

The Earth is Flat and there is a vast criminal conspiracy to hide the truth, or, the Earth is round because of gravity.

In each case above, we discard the 'vast criminal conspiracy' theory as violating Occam's Razor.  There are too many assumptions and incentives to tell the truth that make it obvious that the conspiracy theories are not correct.  

And yet, today we have Chris Hayes come up with this beauty of insight and analysis: 

The Occam's Razor Take here is: lots of folks in Trumpworld really did engage in a vast criminal conspiracy that they are desperately trying to keep hidden by lying about it.

This is NOT the 'Occam's Razor take' and Chris Hayes is a moron. 

Each of the crazy conspiracy theories above can be debunked by looking at the huge number of people that would have to be in on the secret and yet have never leaked that information.  Where are the Chemtrail airports, ground crews, pilots, chemical manufacturers, etc.  Why has no one EVER come forward to expose this vast criminal conspiracy?  Most likely answer: there is no conspiracy. 

Here Hayes turns Occam's Razor on it's head.  The complete lack of evidence and the consistent denials are proof that there is a vast criminal conspiracy.   

Simple question: If there is evidence that Trump conspired with the Russians, why didn't anything leak prior to the mid term elections?  Why would hundreds of Democrats that have access to evidence of real misconduct not leak that to the press, despite a steady flow of leaks about other information?   

Simple Answer: there is no evidence of a crime, much less a vast criminal conspiracy. 

Monday, November 19, 2018

This is the end...

We have finally reached the end of the Global Warming hysteria.  Ok, maybe not. 

But we should be near the end if the media were even slightly honest in it's reporting.

Two events happened this week that demonstrate the two flaws with the entire AGW scare industry.

1.  The research is all badly compromised by ideological bias.  Once again, studies that were touted as proof that AGW is real have been shown to have been flawed.  And once again, the 'errors' have been shown to magnify the effects or certainty of AGW.   From IBD:

The study itself, by no fewer than ten authors, made sweeping claims. The authors wrote that the study held "implications for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the thermal component of sea-level rise."
In other words, this study is a game-changer that policy makers ignored at their own — and our — peril.
Media around the world seized upon the report as yet another indicator of climate-change doom and runaway global warming. No surprise, since most of the media faithfully adhere to the Holy Church of Global Warming.
The only problem: The study made a crucial math error, something that happens often in published reports. Its alarming conclusion was all but invalidated, as The Daily Caller's Michael Bastasch reported.
Why is it that ALL of the errors in these models and studies reinforce the claims of the AGW doomsday evangelists?  Real mistakes would cut both ways -- probability demands that some of the errors would undermine the case for AGW, but this never happens.  We can only conclude that these are not 'mistakes' at all.

2. The climate is not cooperating -- again.  This fall has had the earliest recorded snowfall EVER in several parts of the country.   New York and Houston are getting snow while Colorado ski resorts are open early with 4 feet of snow dropping over the early November weekend.    This does not appear to be just weather. The past two years have seen a record drop in global temperatures.  If the trend for the past two years continues for 5 more months, all the warming recorded since 1980 will have been erased.  This does not align with any of the models for Climate Change. 

When will the Cult of Global Warming accept that their models are wrong and that they have wildly missed the mark for real science?  If the media were even close to fair on this topic, this would be then end. 

But the media is biased.  And so the cult will continue to chant their insipid slogans while attempting to take over the global economy and destroy civilization.

Friday, November 16, 2018

A Short Story...

I voted!

Shocker! It’s another race hoax!

Recent reports that someone had placed an offensive note on the apartment door at Kansas State University produced the usual histrionics and pearl clutching about how Trump has inspired racists to start being more active and vocal.
After a brief investigation, police have determined that the perpetrator was… 

wait for it…

the ‘victim’ himself.   He wrote the sign and taped it to his own door.

Of course, the initial report reached millions, and the retraction reached a few hundred people.

Virtually every race based incident over the past ten years has been a hoax.  Time and time again, police investigations have revealed that the entire incident was a hoax.  Or, in some cases, an innocent piece of trash that caused a panic. 

The problem is that the media reports, and people remember, the initial report of the incident.  Very few people ever see the retraction.  This drumbeat of false race incidents creates a false impression that America is a hot bed of racial hatred, when the opposite is true. 

Democrats push Gun Control? Don’t believe it…

The Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 8 years, and they have announced a few priorities:

  • Investigate Trump
  • Impeach Trump
  • Gun Control

This entire agenda is disingenuous crap.  

Let’s look at the Gun Control agenda as an example.

A number of leading Democrats are insisting that Gun Control will be at the top of their agenda in the new Congress.  According the the Wall Street Journal,  'Democrats say they will pass the most aggressive gun-control legislation in decades when they become the House majority in January, plans they renewed this week in the aftermath of a mass killing in a California bar.'

There are a few problems with this ambitious agenda, not the least of which is that they have no intention of actually doing anything.

Trump is President and the Republicans control the Senate.   No anti-gun legislation stands a chance of being passed by the Senate and Trump.  Democratic caterwauling about guns is pure grandstanding.

Remember, when the Obama-era Democrats controlled both Houses and the Presidency with filibuster-proof majorities, they did not pass a single gun control law.   Not one. 

Democrats are fundamentally un-serious about gun control.  When they had the chance to pass laws, they did nothing.  They only make noise about gun control when they are not a risk of actually having to vote on legislation.

They think that they can use gun control as a club to wield against Republicans for the next two years.   They have no intention of actually making law.