No Fly Zone is a Very Bad Idea

 

The war in the Ukraine drags on and now some people are calling for a ‘No Fly’ Zone to be enforced over the conflict region.

We should be very clear what a No Fly Zone means:  It means World War III.

A No Fly Zone is enforced by shooting down any aircraft that violate the Zone.  Shooting down aircraft and killing the crews is an Act of War.

If NATO attempts to enforce a No Fly Zone it will immediately escalate into open warfare between multiple nuclear-armed nations.  This is a Very Bad Thing.

Here is what No Fly enforcement would look like:

NATO would declare the No Fly Zone. In order to enforce the Zone, you have to put NATO aircraft in the air over Ukraine very close to the front lines.  Backed by AWACs airborne radar, they would fly Combat Air Patrol over the disputed territory. 

Russian aircraft would ignore the rules and continue combat flight operations over Ukraine.  Of course, the Russians have fighter jets too, and they would attempt to protect the bombers, transports and attack helicopters. 

NATO would have a choice: Do nothing and look like impotent morons or shoot down the offending aircraft.  

Shooting down Russian planes would be the first shots of WWIII.

Of course, the disputed territory is also filled with Russian antiaircraft missiles.  Those missiles would be fired at the NATO planes.  NATO would respond with SEAD strikes (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses).  NATO aircraft would directly attack Russian troops on the ground in an effort to knock out the SAM (surface to air missiles) batteries.  THIS IS WWIII. 

Alternatively, NATO could position Patriot missile batteries deep inside Ukraine to enforce the No Fly Zone.   These missile systems would need to be manned by NATO troops because the Ukrainians are not trained to use them.  The Russians, being shot at by SAM’s, would target those positions and attack them.  NATO troops would die.  This is WWIII.

If NATO somehow managed to establish local air superiority over Ukraine, Russia could still target NATO aircraft with long range SAM’s launched from within Russia.  This would force NATO planes to attack Russian soil to suppress those missile batteries. 

WWIII would quickly spread and escalate. 

The US would send a Carrier battle group into the region to allow the Navy to support the effort.  Russian submarines would find that to be a tempting target, and NATO would be forced to start sinking submarines in order to protect the carriers.

Flying combat missions over Ukraine from Poland or Germany would greatly reduce the amount of time the fighters could loiter in the combat zone.  You would need multiple tankers for air-to-air refueling. NATO would increase combat effectiveness by using Ukrainian airbases.  This would require NATO troops on the ground to protect against Russian special forces attacks.

NATO would need to knock out Russian radar sites near the Ukrainian border.  These sites inside The Motherland are well defended and would be very costly to attack.  NATO would resort to cruise missiles to evade and degrade the air defenses.  These weapons normally carry high explosives warheads, but cruise missiles can also carry nuclear warheads.   From the Russian point of view, a wave of cruise missiles crossing the border headed toward Moscow would be indistinguishable from a nuclear first strike. 

The Russians would have 5-15 minutes to decide – is this a conventional strike targeting our air defense network?  Or is NATO launching nukes in an effort to cripple Russia’s nuclear defense capabilities and kill Putin?  Well, comrade, do we launch our nukes, or do we risk nuclear annihilation?  You now have 4 minutes to decide….

And that, folks, is how nuclear wars get started. 

A No Fly Zone is a terrible, awful, no good idea.  Best case scenario it starts WWIII and kills millions.  Worst case scenario it leads to nuclear war and the death of billions, if not the outright extinction of the human race. 

If you are cheerleading for a No Fly Zone, you are cheering for the apocalypse.