The Media has it's thumb on the scale as usual, but all the signs indicate that Mitt will win in a romp tomorrow:
- All of the polls are massively over sampled with Democrats and Independents. The latest poll has Obama and Romney tied at 49%, but the poll has 11% more Democrats in the sample. This is supposed to compensate for the fact that Democrats turned out at +8 in the last election, and therefore a 50-50 sample would not be correct. There is no way that Democrats have +11 turnout, which would be 50% higher than when Obama-mania was at it's peak. Romney is really leading by 5% if the samples were accurate.
- Democrat voter identification is down from 2008.
- Likely voters for Democrats are down from 2008.
- Enthusiasm levels for Democrats are down from 2008.
- Traditionally solid Democrat states are at risk in this election. Both candidates are campaigning in PA, which tells you they both think Romney can win there.
- MI is in play -- it is dead even in the last poll.
- WI(!) is in play. The latest polls from the state that sent us Russ Feingold show Romney withing the margin of error.
- The Bradley Effect (where people are reluctant to tell pollsters that they are voting against the black guy) may reappear. This has resulted in black candidates polling 3-5% better than the actually do in the election.
- The larger the sample size in the poll, the better Mitt Romney shows. The large polls all have Mitt in the lead. The small sample size polls are the only ones that show a lead for Obama. When we do the largest possible poll on election day, Romney will prevail.
- Last minute bungling on Benghazi and Sandy means Obama missed his last chance to appear Presidential before the election. He got no bounce, and in fact has lost ground since these events.
- Early voting is down 57% in Chicago. This is a sign of waning enthusiasm in the Obama base. If Chicago won't turn out, then no one is going to turn out. And if Chicago does not turn out, Illinois is in play to fall into the Romney column. If Obama's 'home' state won't vote for him, he has zero chance of getting re-elected.
- Deep Blue Massachusetts has the Senate race tied between Brown and Warren. If MA is electing Republicans (even RINO Republicans) then all is lost nationally for the Democrats.
- Minnesota is showing Obama with a 1 point lead that is within the margin of error. Minnesota elected Al Franken to the Senate, and now Obama is in a tie??
- Rallies for Romney are attended in massive numbers, with stadiums overflowing and crowds spilling out of parks and theaters. Crowds for Obama are anemic -- 200 people show up for Obama and Stevie Wonder, 8 people for Sandra Fluke, etc. The Media sees the gap and is trying to inflate the Obama numbers. They recently reported a crowd of 20,000 for an event held in an arena with a capacity of 12,000. The the gap is so big that exaggeration no longer helps, they have to just make stuff up, even the mathematically impossible.
- Team Obama can't stay on message. 'Vote for Revenge' is just the latest gaffe that dilutes the message and weakens Obama.
- America has seen what the Democrat party is really like. We saw them boo God and Israel three times before the platform was changed at the convention. We see what happens when you put Democrats in charge of national security: the Mideast is in flames and our Ambassador is dead. We see who his friends are: Putin, Chavez,
- The economy is in a shambles. Despite the rosy reporting from the media, people know that things are not right. People vote their pocket books.
- Obama and Biden are running to the right of Mitt Romney. The latest speech from Biden could have been delivered by Ronald Reagan. It was all about free markets and strong defense. If they are that far to the right, you know the left wing crap is not selling this year.
- The Left is threatening violence if Obama does not win. Twitter is swamped with death threats and calls for rioting, and big name Obama supporters like Bill Maher are saying "Black people will come after you" if you vote for Romney. This is an attempt to scare people that racial unrest will ensue if they don't vote Obama, and this is a sign of desperation.
- Left wing religious people are less likely to vote for Obama. Obama held a Catholics for Obama rally in CO. 45 people showed up. Obama's tepid support for Israel has eroded his strong support among Jews. These groups are a key constituency of the Left, and without them, Obama is sunk.
- Support among black people has eroded in the wake of Obama coming out in favor of gay marriage. There are a large number of Black pastors who are not supporting Obama, and gay marriage is very unpopular among blacks. While this might not get people to vote for Romney, it will likely lower turnout from 2008 levels.
Romney will over come the huge advantage of Media bias. He will prevail over rampant cheating and ballot stuffing by Democrats. He will prevail over 20,000 union thugs assigned to intimidate voters are polling places. He will prevail over Black Panthers, threats of riots, and warnings of racial strife.
Romney will win, and he will win in a massive blow out.