At the moment, the Middle East is set to explode.
Most of the governments are in the hands of radical Islamists. They are unstable, aggressive, and aligned against American and Israel.
When this tinderbox explodes it will send oil prices through the roof, crashing the US economy, create an international crisis and potentially, a world war. This will be a huge factor in the upcoming election, and it will either help or hurt Obama depending on how it all gets started.
If Obama looks inept, indecisive, or weak, he is finished. If he fails to support Israel or if Israel suffers huge losses, the Jewish vote will abandon him, and he is finished. If he initiates aggressive military action he will anger the Occupy part of his base, and he is finished. If an oil shock sinks the economy he is finished.
He needs to look strong and decisive. He needs Americans to unite behind a war-time President. He needs the oil shock and the war to be someone else's fault, and he needs someone else to start the war.
Most of the scenarios play out with Obama getting booted out of office. Only one plays out in his favor:
Obama launches pre-emptive strike: Obama authorizes a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians try to close the Straight of Hormuz, and oil prices skyrocket. The anti-nuke strike is only partially successful, requiring additional hostilities to destroy more facilities and keep shipping lanes open. Russia gets antsy, threatening war. Iran attempts to widen the war by attacking Israel. Pro-Islamist goverments throughout the Middle East attack Americans or stage massive demonstrations. The UN announces sanctions against the US. The American people support the strike, but are dismayed by world reactions and $15 per gallon gasoline. Obama loses in November.
Israel Launches a Pre-Emptive strike: Israel launches a pre-emptive strike. US forces detect the strike, but to not interfere or assist. The Iranians attempt to close the Straight of Hormuz, and oil prices skyrocket. The strike is only partially successful, requiring additional hostilities to destroy more facilities and keep shipping lanes open. Iran attempts to widen the war by attacking the US forces in the gulf. Pro-Islamist goverments thoughout the Middle East attack Israel or stage massive demonstrations. Russia gets antsy, threatening war. The UN announces sanctions against the Israel and Obama must choose to veto and support Israel, or pass the measure and alienate the Arab world. The American people support the strike, but are dismayed by world reactions and $15 per gallon gasoline. The American Jews are angry at Obama, the economy collapses, Obama looks weak, and he loses in November.
|The Iranian - Israeli conflcit is about to become important to Obama|
Since Obama will never attack first, the only two scenarios in play are Iranian or Israeli aggression. It is imperative to Obama, therefore, that Israel be prevented from striking first.
As you watch this develop over the next few months, watch how Obama makes it clear to Israel that we are not their friend and that we will not support them in the event of a first strike. In fact, I predict that the US will leak intelligence that we have detected Israeli preparations and training for such a strike in an effort to dissuade the Israelis.
Obama is not stupid. He knows that if Israel attacks he is screwed. Obama will betray and sabotage the Israelis at any cost.
Also watch for demonstrations of weakness or appeasement to the mullahs in Iran. He needs them to think that we will not be aggressive in response to an attack. We can expect Obama to do everything he can to invite a strike by Iran.